人工智慧的進步 Advances in artificial intelligence
ChatGPT的興起對今年的科學產生了深遠影響。它的創造者，位於美國舊金山的人工智慧研究公司OpenAI，預計在2024年底發布支撐聊天機器人的下一代人工智慧模型GPT-5。GPT-5可能會比其前身GPT-4展現出更先進的功能。科學家同時也關注GPT-4的競爭對手Gemini的推出。
The rise of ChatGPT has had a profound impact on science this year. Its creator, OpenAI, an artificial intelligence research company located in San Francisco, USA, is expected to release GPT-5, the next generation artificial intelligence model supporting chat robots, by the end of 2024. GPT-5 is likely to exhibit more advanced capabilities than its predecessor, GPT-4. Scientists are also paying attention to the launch of GPT-4’s competitor Gemini.
大型語言模型可以處理多種類型的輸入，包括文字、電腦程式碼、圖像和音訊視訊。
Large language models can handle many types of input, including text, computer code, images, and audio and video.
ChatGPT：恩惠和負擔？ ChatGPT: Favors and Burdens?
美國谷歌DeepMind的人工智慧工具AlphaFold的新版本將於2024年發布。研究人員已經用它高精度地預測了蛋白質的3D形狀。人工智慧將以原子精度模擬蛋白質、核酸和其他分子之間的相互作用，這可能為藥物設計和發現開闢新的可能性。
A new version of AlphaFold, the artificial intelligence tool of Google DeepMind in the United States, will be released in 2024. Researchers have used it to predict the 3D shape of proteins with high accuracy. Artificial intelligence will model interactions between proteins, nucleic acids and other molecules with atomic precision, which could open up new possibilities for drug design and discovery.
解決監管方面的問題迫在眉睫。聯合國人工智慧高階諮詢機構將於2024年年中公佈最終報告，為人工智慧的國際監管制定指導方針。
There is an urgent need to resolve regulatory issues. The United Nations High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence will release its final report in mid-2024 to formulate guidelines for the international supervision of artificial intelligence.
瞄準星星 aim for the stars
位於智利的維拉魯賓天文台計劃在2024年底前開始運行部分儀器。借助天文台的8.4公尺望遠鏡和32億像素相機，科學家希望發現許多新的瞬態現象和近地小行星。
The Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile plans to start operating some instruments by the end of 2024. With the observatory's 8.4-meter telescope and 3.2-billion-pixel camera, scientists hope to discover many new transient phenomena and near-Earth asteroids.
同樣在智利，西蒙斯天文台將於2024年中建成。這項下一代宇宙學實驗將在宇宙微波背景中尋找原始重力波的特徵。它的望遠鏡將配備多達5萬個聚光探測器，是目前正在進行的類似項目的10倍。
Also in Chile, the Simons Observatory will be completed in mid-2024. This next-generation cosmology experiment will search for signatures of primordial gravity waves in the cosmic microwave background. Its telescope will be equipped with up to 50,000 light-gathering detectors, 10 times more than similar projects currently underway.
天文學家依然擔心，由於越來越多明亮的衛星星座用光污染夜空，新的地基望遠鏡資料可能會變得無法使用。
Astronomers remain concerned that new ground-based telescope data may become unusable as more and more bright satellite constellations pollute the night sky with light.
位於智利的維拉魯賓天文台。圖片來源：Rubin Obs/NSF/AURA
Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile. Image credit: Rubin Obs/NSF/AURA
「武器化」的蚊子 ‘Weaponized’ mosquitoes
世界蚊子計畫將於2024年在巴西的一家工廠開始生產抗病蚊子。蚊子將攜帶一種細菌，防止它們傳播致病性病毒，保護多達7,000萬人免受登革熱和寨卡病毒等疾病的侵害。
The World Mosquito Project will start producing disease-resistant mosquitoes at a factory in Brazil in 2024. Mosquitoes will carry a bacterium that prevents them from spreading disease-causing viruses, protecting up to 70 million people from diseases such as dengue fever and Zika.
這家非營利組織計劃在未來10年每年生產多達50億隻攜帶細菌的蚊子。
The nonprofit plans to produce up to 5 billion bacteria-carrying mosquitoes each year over the next 10 years.
世界蚊子計畫一家工廠生產的蚊子。圖片來源：Jaime Saldarriaga/AP via Alamy
Mosquitoes produced in a World Mosquito Project factory. Photo credit: Jaime Saldarriaga/AP via Alamy
疫情以外 Outside of the epidemic
隨著世界走出新型冠狀病毒大流行，美國政府正在資助3種下一代疫苗的試驗。其中兩種是鼻內疫苗，透過在氣道組織中產生免疫力來預防感染。第三種是一種mRNA疫苗，可以增強抗體和T細胞反應，有望提供對冠狀病毒變異體的持久免疫。
As the world emerges from the novel coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. government is funding trials of three next-generation vaccines. Two of them are intranasal vaccines that prevent infection by creating immunity in the airway tissues. The third is an mRNA vaccine that boosts antibody and T-cell responses and is expected to provide long-lasting immunity against coronavirus variants.
同時，世界衛生組織將在2024年5月舉行的第77屆世界衛生大會上公佈其流行病條約的最終草案。該條約旨在讓各國政府更好地預防和管理未來的流行病。
At the same time, the World Health Organization will publish the final draft of its epidemic treaty at the 77th World Health Assembly in May 2024. The treaty aims to enable governments to better prevent and manage future pandemics.
月球任務 lunar mission
自1970年代以來，美國太空總署再次啟動載人登月任務。阿爾忒彌斯二號最快可能在2024年11月發射，將搭載三男一女共4名太空人搭乘「獵戶座」太空船進行為期10天的繞月飛行。
Since the 1970s, NASA has once again launched a manned mission to the moon. Artemis 2 may be launched as soon as November 2024, and will carry a total of four astronauts, three men and one woman, aboard the Orion spacecraft for a 10-day flight around the moon.
美國太空總署訪問木衛二的太空船。圖片來源： NASA/JPL-Caltech/Johns Hopkins, APL/Ed Whitman
NASA spacecraft visiting Europa. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Johns Hopkins, APL/Ed Whitman
中國準備在2024年啟動嫦娥六號月球採樣任務。如果成功，這將是第一個從月球背面收集樣本的任務。
China is preparing to launch the Chang'e-6 lunar sampling mission in 2024. If successful, it would be the first mission to collect samples from the far side of the moon.
此外，美國太空總署的「克利伯號」太空船將於2024年10月飛往木星的衛星木衛二。日本計畫於2024年進行火星衛星探索任務，將造訪火星的衛星火衛一和火衛二，其探測器會降落在火衛一並收集表面樣本。
In addition, NASA's "Clipper" spacecraft will fly to Jupiter's moon Europa in October 2024. Japan plans to launch a Mars satellite exploration mission in 2024. It will visit the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos. Its probe will land on Phobos and collect surface samples.
「照亮」暗物質 "Illuminating" dark matter
一項被稱為「軸子」的暗物質粒子實驗的結果將在2024年看到曙光。德國電子同步加速器進行的BabyIAXO實驗使用一個由10米長的磁鐵和超靈敏的無噪聲X射線探測器組成的太陽望遠鏡，每天跟踪太陽中心12小時，以捕捉軸子轉化為光子的過程。
Results from an experiment on dark matter particles called "axions" will see the light of day in 2024. The BabyIAXO experiment at the Electron Synchrotron in Germany uses a solar telescope consisting of a 10-meter-long magnet and an ultra-sensitive noise-free X-ray detector to track the center of the sun for 12 hours a day to capture the conversion of axions into photons.
2024年可能是科學家確定中微子質量的一年。中微子是粒子物理學標準模型中最神秘的粒子。研究人員將在2024年完成資料收集，並有望對這些微小顆粒進行明確測量。
2024 could be the year scientists determine the mass of neutrinos. Neutrinos are the most mysterious particles in the Standard Model of particle physics. Researchers will complete data collection in 2024 and hope to make clear measurements of these tiny particles.
關於意識的辯論 The debate about consciousness
2024年，科學家可能會對意識的神經基礎有新的體會。一個大型計畫正在透過一系列對抗性實驗來測試兩種意識理論，預計在2024年底前公佈第二輪實驗的結果。
In 2024, scientists may have new insights into the neural basis of consciousness. A large-scale project is testing two theories of consciousness through a series of adversarial experiments, with the results of a second round of experiments expected to be announced by the end of 2024.
在第一輪中，兩種理論都未能與觀察到的腦造影數據完全一致。第二輪研究可能會讓神經科學更接近解讀主觀經驗的奧秘。
In the first round, neither theory was fully consistent with the observed brain imaging data. A second round of research may bring neuroscience closer to deciphering the mysteries of subjective experience.
拯救地球 save the earth
2024年下半年，海牙國際法院可能會就各國應對氣候變遷的法律義務發表意見，並對那些破壞氣候的國家的法律後果作出裁決。
In the second half of 2024, the International Court of Justice in The Hague is likely to issue an opinion on the legal obligations of countries to respond to climate change and rule on the legal consequences of those countries that damage the climate.
自1950年代以來，世界上已經生產了100億噸塑料，其中70多億噸現在成為廢品。聯合國塑膠條約政府間談判將於2024年結束。該條約旨在建立一項具有約束力的國際協議，以消除塑膠污染。
Since the 1950s, the world has produced 10 billion tons of plastic, more than 7 billion tons of which are now waste. Intergovernmental negotiations for the United Nations Plastics Treaty will conclude in 2024. The treaty aims to establish a binding international agreement to eliminate plastic pollution.
超電腦 supercomputer
2024年年初，研究人員將啟動歐洲首台百億億次超級電腦「木星」。這台巨大的機器每秒鐘可以執行一百萬億次計算。研究人員將利用該機器創建基於醫學目的的人類心臟和大腦「數位雙胞胎」模型，並對地球氣候進行高解析度模擬。
In early 2024, researchers will launch Europe’s first exascale supercomputer, Jupiter. This massive machine can perform a quadrillion calculations per second. Researchers will use the machine to create "digital twin" models of the human heart and brain for medical purposes and conduct high-resolution simulations of Earth's climate.
美國研究人員將在2024年安裝兩台百億億次電腦－阿貢國家實驗室的Aurora和勞倫斯利弗莫爾國家實驗室的El Capitan。科學家將利用Aurora繪製大腦神經迴路圖，利用El Capitan模擬核武爆炸的效果。
U.S. researchers will install two exascale computers in 2024 - Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory and El Capitan at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Scientists will use Aurora to map the brain's neural circuits and El Capitan to simulate the effects of a nuclear explosion.
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